A. Germany in Dominant Position
From 1871 to 1914 Germany holds a dominant position in European politics.
This is the result of her defeat of France and the unification of all the
German states except Austria. Germany now holds a strong central position
in Europe physically. She has a victorious army based on universal service
obligations. Thanks to Bismarck's diplomacy, she is a "satiated"
power, i.e. she is satisfied with things as they are.
But dangers of all kinds surround her. Europe is naturally suspicious, looking
for opportunities to weaken her position. So Bismarck decides to bind the
other powers to Germany in order to maintain the status quo.
Otto von Bismarck has been rightfully considered to be one of the great
statesmen of the 19th century. His skill as a diplomat consisted largely
of understanding the legitimate interests and weaknesses of others. He was
resourceful in difficult moments, as in 1887. He always had several alternatives
available to meet any situation. He had complete control over German policy,
granted to him as the chancellor by the emperor. He knew how to manipulate
and control the politicians in the Reichstag. He brought order to Europe
like Metternich did after Napoleon's defeat a generation before. Fundamentally
Bismarck's policy after 1871 is a policy of peace. Practically speaking
his guiding principle is to prevent France from getting an ally-either Russia
or Austria.
B. Three Emperors League.
Bismarck's first move in this direction was the Three Emperors League. In
1872 an informal agreement was signed by the emperors of Germany, Russia
and Austria in Berlin. It stipulated that all three wanted to preserve the
status quo and suppress revolutionary ideas wherever they popped up. This
was an old notion, which Metternich had also tried to implement. It was
after all a revolutionary age-ever since 1789.
C. Military Conventions-1873
In 1873 teeth were put into the agreement. The Germans and Russians signed
a military convention which said that both powers would mobilize 200,000
troops if either of them was attacked by a third power. The Austrians and
the Russians also signed an agreement which provided for mutual consultation,
the renunciation of new alliances, and the common conduct of policy should
aggression by a third power occur. The king of Italy later adhered to this
Austro-Russian agreement.
Britain, meanwhile, had no active policy. This had the effect of totally
isolating France, as Bismarck intended. French primacy in European affairs
was over for good, or so it seemed to contemporary observers.
In order to reduce the influence of the Catholic Church in Germany and create
what Bismarck thought to be a truly national consensus, he conducted the
so-called Kulturkampf. This restricted the freedom of the Catholic press
and their educational system. The French bishops sympathized with the plight
of the Catholic clergy in Germany. So Bismarck decided to impress on France
her sense of isolation.
In the spring of 1875 the French Chamber had passed a new army law which
added a fourth battalion to each regiment. Bismarck now said this indicated
an impending attack of France on Germany. The Berlin Post published an article
inspired by Bismarck which ran a screaming headline: "Is War in Sight?"
The German Imperial General Staff began to urge a preventive war against
France. The chief of the General Staff, Helmut von Moltke, used threatening
language in a discussion with the Belgian minister in Berlin. The Foreign
Minister of France used this comment to score Bismarck and appeal to the
tsar of Russia for help. The tsar and his minister, Gorchakov, then visited
Berlin to talk things out. Queen Victoria of England decided to send a conciliatory
letter to the German Emperor, who was a relative of hers. The crisis, artificially
created by Bismarck, thus ends, but the consequences were important.
For his part, Bismarck denied that he ever contemplated war and blamed the
crisis on the everpresent intrigues of Gorchakov. But Bismarck also learned
that even isolated France is not without some friends. The French continued
to believe that Bismarck meant to start a war. There is some evidence to
suggest that Decazés had a hand in creating the incident. In any
case, Bismarck believed that Gorchakov had disturbed the Three Emperors
League and began to turn to Britain for a new alliance. He made these overtures
to Britain in 1876 and again in 1879. He also was eager to prevent any alliance
between Austria and France. France must be kept in isolation.
The Balkans are always a problem in this period, right up to the outbreak
of World War I. The underlying issues is the fact that the Austrian Empire
included a host of different nationalities and peoples, yearning to be free.
In July 1875 there was a revolt in one of these small areas controlled by
Austria: Bosnia-Herzegovina. In the spring of 1876 Serbia and Montenegro
declared war on Austria-Hungary and were decisively defeated. The Bulgarians
rise and are savagely repressed.
In Russia, which regarded itself as some sort of protector of her fellow
slaves, there was a public outcry for intervention in the Balkans. Any action
by Russia, of course, was feared by Austria, since it would have encouraged
rebellion by Austria's Slavic subjects throughout the empire.
A. End of Three Emperors League
In June of 1876 the Austrian emperor, Francis Joseph, and the Russian emperor,
Alexander II, got together at Reichstadt and signed an agreement. This brings
about some sort of quasi-cooperation. The effect is that it killed the Three
Emperors League.. The advocates of a Pan-Slav movement, meanwhile, carried
on an active anti-Austrian propaganda in the Balkans.
The Russian tsar in the fall of 1876 asked Bismarck if Germany would remain
neutral should Russia go to war with Austria. This put Bismarck in a quandary.
If he went with Russia, Austria-Hungary would have been destroyed. If he
went with Austria-Hungary, it would have thrown Russia into the lap of France.
He decided to back Austria in a vague way and stayed there. Russia then
chose to fight Turkey instead.
B. Convention of Budapest
Meanwhile, the Russian and Austrian cabinets signed a Convention of Budapest
in January 1877. This agrement stipulated the benevolent neutrality of Austria
with regard to Russian activity with regard to Turkey. It also said Austria
would prevent intervention by any other power and provide mediation if necessary.
Austria meanwhile got the right to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Russia
agreed not to create a large state, Slavic or otherwise.
When Russia and Turkey went to war in April 1877, Bismarck said he would
play the role of "an honest broker" between the rivals. Bismarck
realized that Russia had legitimate interest int he Near East and banked
on the traditional friendship between Russia and Germany. As far as Bismarck
was concerned, the Ottoman Turks were not worth saving.
Bismarck pushed for all the major powers to get something out of the crisis.
Russia should have some interest and control in the eastern Balkans, while
Austria should have the same in the western Balkans. The English should
control Egypt and the Suez Canal and negotiate some deal over the straits
with Constantinople. The French could have Syria as far as Bismarck was
concerned. Italy should get something, but he was not sure what. Germany,
meanwhile, wanted to prevent any diplomatic combination and prevent any
war from endangering her. He figured if Austria and Russia did not quarrel
with each other, neither of them would be tempted to seek an alliance with
France.
C. The Treaty of San Stefano
The Russo-Turkish war ended with the Treaty of San Stefano, signed in March
1878. As a result, Rumania, Serbia, and Montenegro became independent countries.
"Greater Bulgaria" was declared to be autonomous, which meant
not quite independent. In Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms were to be instituted.
Russia got some territory in Asia Minor and an indemnity paid by the Turks.
Austria immediately complained because the creation of the Greater Bulgaria,
she claimed, violated the Budapest Agreement with Russia. Britain, meanwhile,
decided to become active, objecting to the partition of Turkey, and sent
a fleet to Constantinople to make the point. Austria-Hungary then joined
Britain in demanding that the Treaty of Saint Stefano be submitted to a
Congress of the Great Powers for resoluti
on. To prevent further war from breaking out, Bismarck put pressure on Russia
and again sided with Austria against Russia.
D. The Congress of Berlin
All of this resulted in the famous Congress of Berlin where Bismarck could
play the role of "honest broker." This famous Congress took place
at the invitation of Bismarck during June and July of 1878. Because it was
held in Berlin, it emphasized Germany's powerful position in Europe and
Bismarck's dominant influence. The Congress
1. reduced the size of Bulgaria,
2. forced Russia to give up some territory in Asia Minor,
3. empowered Austria-Hungary to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina,
4. gave Cyprus to Britain,
5. humiliated Russia,
6. rearranged Turkey's position in Europe, and
7. kept the peace at the price of Russian hostility.
Russian resentment against Germany is deep and unrelenting. There are violent
polemics on both sides. Russia even moves troops to the Russo-German frontier.
The German representative on the commission which negotiated the application
of the Berlin Treaty frequently votes against Russia. The tsar complains
about this to the German emperor and demands that Germany change her attitude.
And a fundamental change in German policy does indeed take place: the Austro-German
Alliance of 1879. Here is how it happened. Bismarck decided that because
of Russian hostility Germany must align herself with Austria. Russia is
even making overtures to France and Italy. But Emperor William I is reluctant.
He is, after all, the uncle of the Russian tsar. The emperor insists that
the alliance is not to be directed against Russia. Andrassy, the Hungarian
minister does not want a general defensive alliance or one directed against
France. So Bismarck gets mad and threatens to resign, while demanding that
the emperor abdicate. He gets his way as you usually did when threatening
resignation.
The Dual Alliance between Germany and Austria was signed in October 1879.
If either one is attacked by Russia, they promise to use their "whole
war strength" against Russia. If another power attacks either one of
them the other promised to remain neutral. If that power is supported by
Russia, then both fight.
This was a major turning point in European history. It was the first permanent
peacetime alliance--the first in the system of alliances that now began
to develop. It gave pause to Russia and thus kept the peace in Europe. It
also strengthened the German part of Austria-Hungary vis-a-vis their various
minorities. It restored the system which prevailed in Europe before the
Austro-Prussian war of 1866: with two major German powers in Central Europe.
The German emperor feared that it would bring together Russia and France
and involve Germany in Austria's problems in the Balkans. But all of this
only came to fruition after Bismarck is gone.
In 1881 the Dual Alliance became the Triple Alliance with the addition of
Italy. The Italians resented the protectorate the French had acquired over
Tunis in 1881. But the real motive for the Italian government may have been
its desire to strengthen is position vis-a-vis the Vatican, which had close
connections to autocratic monarchies. The attempt to guarantee the independence
of Rome was rejected by Austria. Thus the new alliance was regarded as a
defensive alliance. It provided for the following contingencies:
At this point things really got complicated. Only Bismarck could keep it
all straight in his head. For this he has been called a genius and he did
maintain peace in Europe during this term of office.
Bismarck claimed that the alliance with Austria was a warning, not a threat
to Russia. But Russia feels isolated nonetheless, especially since she has
various disputes with England in the Near East and in Asia. So the Russian
approach Bismarck for some kind of deal. Bismarck is receptive and persuades
Austria to go along. The Alliance of the Three Emperors was singed in June
1881. If a fourth power attacked one of them the others would remain neutral.
This also applied to Turkey, but only if previous agreement had been reached.
Thus Germany and Austria would not assist Britain against Russia and Russia
would remain neutral if a Franco-German or Austro-Italian war ensued. Russia
and Austria promised to work in harmony over the problems in the Balkans.
The treaty was renewed in 1884 and ended in 1887.
There were furthermore two other alliances: an Austro-Serbian Alliance (1881-1895)
which supported the dynasty in Serbia in return for Austrian rights to approve
any political treaties Serbia might want to make. The Serbs also promised
not to engage in intrigues against Austria. An Austrian-Rumanian Alliance
was signed which lasted somewhat longer (1883-1913). Rumania was mad because
it lost Bessarabia to Russia in 1878. Austria promised to aid Rumania if
she was attacked and vice versa. Germany and Italy both adhered to this
treaty in 1883 and 1888 respectively. Thus Austria-Hungary was in a strong
position in the Balkans in case the Russian tsar forgot the Three Emperors
Alliance of 1881.
Between 1884 and 1885 there were a number of colonial complications. Germany
was fairly friendly with Britain up to this point. But when Germany started
to move in the direction of acquiring new colonies, Britain opposed her--much
to the surprise of Bismarck. Bismarck then decided to teach the British
a lesson on how dangerous it was to thwart Germany. France, under the leadership
of Jules Ferry, was in rivalry with Britain. So in 1884-5 Ferry cooperated
with Germany in Africa and China. But the French had not forgotten the loss
of Alsace-Lorraine and Jules Ferry was toppled from power because of his
cooperation with Bismarck and the loss of Tonkin. Bismarck then turned back
to Britain in the summer of 1885.
In September 1885 there was a rebellion in Eastern Rumelia whose people
proclaimed a union with Bulgaria. This was a violation of the Berlin Treaty
of 1878. A polemical battle ensued between Alexander Battenberg, the German
candidate for the throne of a greater Bulgaria, and Alexander III, the tsar
of Russia, who opposed a German on the Bulgarian throne. Russia protested
strongly against the union, whereas Austria-Hungary and Britain supported
the union. Germany appeared almost indifferent to the whole affair.
But in 1886 the Alexandrine episode gathered new steam. Battenberg was kidnapped
in August and forced to abdicate his throne by Russia. The Russian then
broke off diplomatic relations. At this point it became a European crisis.
Kalnoky, the Austro-Hungarian minister denounced Russian action, while Bismarck
tells the Austrians that Germany will not help her if war breaks out. Meanwhile,
in France General Boulanger attempts to seize the government and set up
a military dictatorship hostile to Germany. This too worries Bismarck. Russia's
actions in the Balkans are hampered to an extent by a noisy public campaign
in Russia against the Three Emperors Alliance. There is also considerable
sympathy in Russia for France. So in 1887 there is widespread fear in Europe
that a war is about to break out.
This is a severe test of Bismarck ability as a diplomat. But he is up to
the task. In February 1887 he arranges the First Mediterranean Agreement.
This was an agreement among Britain, Italy and Austria to maintain the status
quo in the Mediterranean, Adriatic, Aegean, and Black Seas. It was clearly
a barrier to France and Russian expansion without incurring Russian hostility.
Bismarck had preceded this agreement by having the German Reichstag pass
a new army bill, which surely impressed France.
This situation changed the basic nature of the Triple Alliance, so Bismarck
made the necessary adjustments. The old provision of 1882 were renewed,
but a new German-Italian addendum supported Italian "aggression"
in Africa. In Europe the alliance was now more directly posed against France.
The Austro-Italian part of the alliance swore to maintain the status quo
in the Balkans, but promised reciprocal compensation if changes in territory
occurred. These new promises kept Italy in the alliance, but made things
quite awkward for the German and Austrians in 1914.
The more important event was the conclusion of the socalled Reinsurance
Treaty of June 1887. It became necessary for Bismarck to make this deal
with Russia, since Austria and Russia had refused to renew the Three Emperors
Alliance. Russia is desperately eager to keep in good relations with Germany,
largely in order to brake Austrian expansion in the Balkans. So it was the
Russians which proposed the treaty to Bismarck. It provided that either
power would remain neutral if the other is attacked by a third power. It
did not apply if one of them attacked France or Austria. Thus Russia would
be neutral if France attacked Germany and Germany would be neutral if Austria
or Britain attacked Russia. In this respect the Reinsurance Treaty was compatible
with the Dual Alliance of 1879.
There were other important provisions in the treaty: Germany recognized
Russian rights in Bulgaria and her right to take Constantinople anytime
she wanted to do so. This was certainly counter to Austrian and British
interest in the area, but a safe bet for Bismarck because the First Mediterranean
Agreement would keep Russia from acting on it. This part of the treaty was
not revealed until 1896 when it caused quite a raucous.
In December 1887 there was a Second Mediterranean Agreement. This was brought
about by renewed problems in Bulgaria. Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg was elected
prince of Bulgaria. The trouble was that the new prince was an officer in
the Austro-Hungarian army. Russia got excited and asked Bismarck for help,
which he refused. At this point the German General staff suggested a preventive
war to get Russia out of the Balkans once and for all. But Bismarck only
stopped the granting of loans to Russia, which put a brake on Russia and
eventually forced her to go to Paris for loans.
The Second Mediterranean Agreement merely stipulated that an understanding
would be reached on measures to respect the integrity of the Ottoman Empire.
To play it safe, however, Germany and Austria passed new army bills and
Bismarck decided to publish the secret provisions of the 1879 Treaty text.
This had the effect of halting any Russian action. Bismarck supposedly said:
"We Germans fear God and no one else." Russia then washed her
hands of Bulgaria and Boulanger faded from the scene in France rather dramatically
by committing suicide on the grave of his mistress.
All danger of war was now over. It was a triumph of old-fashioned diplomacy
as conducted by the agile old Otto von Bismarck. Bismarck had won and peace
was maintained. As long as Bismarck was on the scene "his" alliance
system seemed to work. The problem was that almost all of the provisions
of these alliances were secret and only Bismarck understood them fully.
Russo-German relations remained cool. The Russians are buying rifles in
France which makes Bismarck jumpy. So he turns to England to seek an alliance.
British Foreign Minister Salisbury is in favor of such an alliance, but
the British Parliament is not. He has no choice, therefore, but to renew
the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia. The tsar is willing but others are wary
of doing so, both in Russia and Germany.
Things get really tough for Bismarck when the grand old Emperor William
I dies in 1888, sparking an accession problem. The liberal-minded, pro-English
emperor Frederick II becomes emperor for about a year. His wife is the daughter
of Queen Victoria. He dies too. So the mercurial William II comes to the
German throne. This means trouble for Bismarck since the strange new emperor
wants to run his own show. Bismarck had nearly complete control over William
I, but that is not working with William II. In June 1890 Bismarck is dismissed.
The first important effect is that the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia is
not renewed. Holstein, an important figure behind the scenes in the Foreign
Office, is oppose to the Treaty and persuades the emperor and Caprivi, the
new chancellor, not to renew it. The Russian foreign minster, Giers, pleads
for renewal and the tsar hesitates to make an alliance with France, but
all this is of no avail. It is the beginning of the disintegration of Bismarck's
alliance system.
In July 1890 the Germans exchange Heligoland for some territory in Africa.
That is a good sign. But in 1891 things go bad. Early in the year the Empress
Fredericka visits Paris, but the French are more interested to know what
the Russian attitude will be if war comes. The Russians are evasive on this
score, although diplomatically friendly. Then the Triple Alliance of Germany,
Austria, and Italy is renewed in 1891, causing considerable diplomatic commotion.
There is a long debate in the British Parliament, showing that Britain is
well disposed to cooperate with the Triple Alliance, especially with Italy
in regard to maintaining the status quo in the Mediterranean and in the
Near East. A British fleet, in fact, visits Austria and Italy and the German
Emperor visits London. This last act finally brings France and Russia together.
The Russians need loans to build up their army and the French are willing
to give loans, provided the Russian show interest in an alliance. A French
fleet visits the Russian naval base at Kronstadt in St. Petersburg and is
well received. An exchange of notes takes place in August 1891 in which
Russia and France agree to confer on all peace questions and reach an understanding
on measures to take in case of aggression. This particular exchange is largely
geared against Britain. But in 1892 there is an understanding between the
General Staffs of the Russian and the French armies. The French generals
want to concentrate on the German threat, and the Russian generals want
to concentrate on Austria. A compromise is reached the military convention
is signed. Now it is a question of ratification.
The Germans, meanwhile, pass a new army bill, expanding their arsenal. The
Russians and British are involved in a controversy over the Pamir region
of Afghanistan--believe it or not. The French and British engage in a controversy
over Siam in the Far East. The British at this point appeal for support
from the Germans. The think that French policy towards Germany is too pacific
and they want help also against the incursions of Britain in the colonial
realm.
These considerations lead to the ratification of the Franco-Russian Treaty
in January 1894. The provisions are clear enough: If France is attacked
by Germany or Italy assisted by Germany, Russia promises to fight Germany
with 700,000 to 800,000 men. If Russia is attacked by Germany or Austria
assisted by Germany, France will use 1,300,000 troops against Germany. The
most significant provision, in terms of subsequent events, was the one which
said that if any of the Triple Alliance powers mobilized, France and Russia
would mobilize immediately. It is interesting to note that while the circumstances
for the agreement lay outside of Europe, the provisions applied strictly
to Europe.
Bismarck's fear had been realized. The Triple Alliance had been outflanked.
By 1902-4 the French would reach an entente cordial with Britain and thus
complete the socalled Triple Entente, opposing the Triple Alliance directly.
The peace of Europe and the world tottered on the fulcrum of two competing
alliance systems. From 1894 until 1914 it was merely a question of which
particular little diplomatic incident would bring the whole complex structure
crashing to the ground.
- 1870 - 1890: Bismarck in control
- 1890 - 1907: balance against Germany
- Russo-Japanese War, 1904-5
- First Morocco Crisis, 1905-6
- Bosnian Annexation Crisis, 1908
- Second Morocco Crisis, 1911
- Haldane Mission, 1912
- Hapsburg Empire in turmoil
- South Slav Problem
- First Balkan War, 1912-13
- Second Balkan War, 1913.