2.2.1 Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Probabilities



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2.2.1 Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Probabilities

We now consider an experiment that consists of two parts, and each part leads to the occurrence of specified events. Let us define events arising from the first part of the experiment by with probability and events from the second part by with probability . The combination of events and may be called a composite event, denoted by the ordered pair . We wish to generalize the definition of probability to apply to the composite event . The joint probability is defined to be the probability that the first part of the experiment led to event and the second part of the experiment led to event . Thus, the joint probability is the probability that the composite event occurred (i.e., the probability that both events and occur).

Any joint probability can be factored into the product of a marginal probability and a conditional probability:

 

where is the joint probability, is the marginal probability (the probability that event occurs regardless of event ), and is the conditional probability (the probability that event occurs given that event occurs). Note that the marginal probability for event to occur is simply the probability that the event occurs, or . Let us now assume that there are mutually-exclusive events , and the following identity is evident:

 

Using Eq. (2), we easily manipulate Eq. (1) to obtain the following expression for the joint probability

 

Using Eq. (1), Eq. (3) leads to the following expression for the conditional probability:

 

It is important to note that the joint probability , the marginal probability , and the conditional probability are all legitimate probabilities, hence they satisfy the properties given in the box above. Finally, it is straightforward to generalize these definitions to treat a three-part experiment that has a composite event consisting of three events, or in general an -part experiment with events occurring.

If events and are independent, then the probability of one occurring does not affect the probability of the other occurring, therefore:

 

Using Eq. (4), Eq. (5) leads immediately to

 

for independent events and . This last equation reflects the fact that the probability of event occurring is independent of whether event has occurred, if events and are independent.



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Next: 2.2.2 Random Variables Up: 2.2 Probability Previous: 2.2 Probability



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